On October 3–4, 2025, voters in the Czech Republic will decide the composition of their next parliament. Yet the importance of this election reaches far beyond Prague. Over the past year, Russia has intensified its hybrid warfare across Europe — drone and airspace incursions, sabotage of infrastructure, undersea cable damage, cyberattacks, and sweeping disinformation campaigns. For Czechia, the threat is not theoretical: national security and the country’s alignment within Europe are on the ballot.
Populism and the Shadow of Moscow
Central to the campaign is Andrej Babiš, leader of the opposition movement ANO. Known for his populist style and Eurosceptic positions, Babiš’s past raises troubling questions. Revelations from the Pandora Papers linked him to cooperation with Czechoslovakia’s communist-era secret police, the StB, under the codename “Bureš” between 1982 and 1985. Evidence from the Slovak National Memory Institute indicates he provided sensitive information to the regime, though his full dossier vanished from Czech archives.
Czech lustration laws formally bar those tied to Soviet-era intelligence from public office, but gaps in enforcement meant Babiš was never excluded. Analysts suggest that unreleased documents may remain in Russian intelligence files, giving the Kremlin potential leverage. His role in building the Agrofert conglomerate, and allegations of misusing EU subsidies during his premiership, have further fueled doubts about his transparency and accountability.
Defence Policy Under the Spotlight
Babiš has softened his tone on the Ukraine war during this campaign, but his position is clear: if elected, he promises to cancel Prague’s ammunition initiative for Kyiv, citing alleged opacity. While he insists he will not withdraw from the EU or NATO, his persistent scepticism toward both institutions sends a dangerous signal. For Europe, this raises the possibility of a weaker consensus at the very moment unity is needed most.
Information Warfare Shapes the Vote
A report by Online Risk Labs, a Czech cybersecurity firm, revealed how Russian-aligned influence operations are actively shaping the electoral landscape. Nearly 300 TikTok accounts were identified promoting ANO, SPD, and Stačilo!, spreading narratives that justified Russia’s invasion, undermined NATO, and portrayed the EU as a liability. These accounts generated five to nine million weekly views—more than the official channels of major political leaders combined. In a country where roughly 25% of the population uses TikTok, the reach of such content is profoundly significant.
Refugees as a Campaign Battleground
Immigration, particularly the presence of Ukrainian refugees, has become another dividing line. Right-wing parties accuse them of driving inflation and straining resources. Official statistics tell a different story: refugees paid 15 billion CZK in taxes and contributions in the first half of 2025, while state spending reached only 7.6 billion CZK. According to Labour Minister Marian Jurečka, since 2023 the net fiscal balance of refugee presence has remained positive, contradicting populist claims.
Coalition Scenarios and European Stakes
Unless ANO secures 101 out of 200 seats, coalition negotiations will be inevitable. Potential partners—SPD, Stačilo!, or Motoristé—share Eurosceptic leanings and call for “pragmatic” ties with Russia, China, and Iran. A government formed on such a platform would shift Czechia’s trajectory, weakening NATO solidarity and emboldening adversarial actors. By contrast, the current ruling coalition Spolu advocates strengthening EU integration and bolstering transatlantic defence ties.
More Than a National Election
As ballots are cast, the Czech Republic faces a decision with implications far beyond its borders. This election will determine whether Prague continues as a reliable partner in EU and NATO security, or whether populist and pro-Russian forces gain ground at the heart of Central Europe. In the broader context of escalating hybrid threats, the outcome in Prague will serve as a strategic test for European stability.Read more on BritPanoramaOn October 3–4, 2025, Czechs vote in elections shaped by Russian hybrid threats, disinformation, and rising populism. With Babiš and ANO challenging EU and NATO alignment, the result will test Prague’s direction and Europe’s resilience.